The oil and gas industry is starting off 2026 with a bang…literally, if you live in or around Caracas, Venezuela. In a nighttime raid on January 3, United States special forces abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, bringing him to the U.S. to stand trial on weapons offenses and charges of conspiracy related to alleged drug trafficking.

Of course, news reports quickly pointed out that other motives for Maduro’s ouster likely played a role, chief amongst them the world’s largest oil reserves that lie beneath Venezuelan soil. These allegations of oil’s role were quickly confirmed by President Trump himself, when he revealed that he had briefed leaders of major oil companies prior to the raid.

Many pundits were quick to claim that U.S. access to Venezuelan oil could usher in a new oil and gas boom for U.S. companies. Experts, however, warn that the impact of Venezuelan oil is far from certain—and likely years down the line.

In this article, we’ll take a brief look at the potential impact of Venezuelan oil and what, if any, effects we could see on the U.S. oil and gas industry in the short and long term. Will increased access to Venezuelan oil lead to lower prices at the pump? More oil and gas jobs? Only time will tell.

Venezuelan Oil: Today

According to a recent article in The Texas Tribune by Paul Cobler, Venezuela “sits on the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but after decades of economic upheaval and more recently, U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade, little of it is actually sold on the global market.”

How little? In an Al Jazeera article by Osama Bin Javaid, the author notes that “Venezuela sits atop an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, about 17 percent of the global total and more than Saudi Arabia.”

However, “[a]ccording to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela produced 934,000 barrels per day in November, less than 1 percent of global demand and a shadow of the more than 3 million barrels a day it used to pump in the late 1990s and early 2000s.”

Bin Javaid points out that the decline of the Venezuelan oil and gas industry began long before the U.S. imposed harsh sanctions in 2019 intended to bring about regime change: “Years of capital flight, loss of technical expertise and decaying infrastructure left PDVSA (Venezuela’s state oil company) struggling to maintain even basic operations.”

Venezuelan Oil: Tomorrow

With Maduro out of the way for the time being, will the world see a massive influx of Venezuelan oil? Experts believe that’s not at all likely for a couple of reasons.

First, Venezuelan oil is unique in terms of its quality. According to an NPR article by Camila Domonoske, “[t]he type of crude oil that is abundant in Venezuela is kind of gnarly…Heavy crude is thick and sticky. It’s more difficult, and therefore expensive, to extract, transport and refine. Producing it also releases more planet-warming gases than other kinds of crude, making it worse for the climate.”

While heavy crude is more expensive to deal with, the U.S. is uniquely positioned to work with it, since most oil and gas operations in Texas were built to refine heavy crude from places like Venezuela, Mexico, and Canada. However, the abundance of lighter crude from more recent investments in the Permian Basin in Texas has changed the economic calculus for many companies.

More importantly, increasing Venezuela’s output isn’t as simple as cranking up production. According to Domonoske, “Venezuela’s once-thriving oil fields are plagued by power cuts, corroded pipelines and stolen equipment.” A lot of work needs to be done before any meaningful increases in output might be seen.

How much work? Domonoske notes that “[i]ndependent research firm Rystad Energy has estimated it would take $183 billion over more than a decade to restore Venezuelan oil production back to a 1990s-era level, more than tripling it from its current rate of less than 1 million barrels a day.”

That’s a serious investment of time and money, and it’s one that many U.S. oil companies might not be willing to make right now. Not only is the political climate of Venezuela unsettled now, but there’s also no clear direction as to where it’s likely to go soon.

Only one U.S. company—Chevron—currently operates in Venezuela. The others left in 2007 when the Venezuelan government forcibly renegotiated contracts, costing U.S. companies billions of dollars. Many companies will be unwilling to repeat that scenario.

Further complicating the investment equation is the status of the world’s oil markets. Bin Javaid notes that “[n]ew barrels are entering the market from Brazil, Guyana, Argentina and the US. OPEC+ has begun unwinding voluntary cuts totaling nearly 4 million barrels a day while the International Energy Agency projected supply could exceed demand by as much as 2 million barrels per day in 2026.”

The result of this oversupply is a price per barrel hovering around the $60 mark. That’s a mathematical problem for those expecting huge investments in Venezuela, since Domonoske notes that “the breakeven price for projects in Venezuela to turn a profit is more like $80.”

That’s why Cobler concludes that “[g]etting U.S. companies to produce Venezuelan oil is going to require a massive infusion of capital and that has to be acquired from willing investors. Considering the circumstances globally…it’s going to be years in the making.”

Possibilities

While it seems clear that there’s likely to be no short-term major impact related to Venezuelan oil, the possibilities for the future are there. As Bin Javaid notes, “[a]bout 70 percent of US crude imports are heavy oil.” Domonoske adds that “according to the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers trade group, 70% of U.S. refining capacity is optimized for heavy crude.”

So, if investments are made and heavy crude imports from Venezuela reach levels from decades ago, the refineries along the Texas Gulf Coast stand to profit the most. Of course, the profitability calculation always stands in the way, and much will depend upon global oil demand over the next decade.

No one has a crystal ball, but there are signs that demand will continue to fluctuate based upon the outcome of a variety of factors. For example, renewable energy alternatives and electric vehicles (EVs) could deal a blow to global oil demand if they continue to expand at the rates seen over the past decade.

On the other hand, new technologies, like artificial intelligence, may create new demand for power that renewables can’t supply. If AI data centers continue to pop up across the country and around the world, global oil demand could easily rise, creating the economic conditions that would raise oil prices to levels that would make increased production and refinement of Venezuelan oil a sound investment.

Oil and Gas is Here to Stay

While oil executives debate whether to invest in Venezuelan oil, one thing remains clear: the oil and gas industry isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Even as oil and gas demand fluctuates, there will be no shortage of oil and gas jobs for the foreseeable future.

In fact, many oil and gas companies still struggle to hire the skilled workers they desperately need. Moving forward, companies will need to continue to hire skilled workers while also upskilling current workers.

So how do oil and gas companies improve their focus on technical skills? For new and current employees, the answer is technical training. Oil and gas workers need both fundamental knowledge and hands-on technical skills with real industrial equipment they’ll encounter on the job. Be sure to check out Bayport Technical’s wide variety of hands-on oil and gas training systems to take your oil and gas training to the next level!