Who had a new war in the Middle East on their 2026 bingo card? Those who believed campaign promises about “no new wars” might be surprised. However, those paying attention to Venezuela and Cuba probably were not surprised to awake to recent news of joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

Unfortunately, this new war’s effect on global oil supply was immediate and impactful, as Iran quickly moved to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply moves daily.

Predictably, Americans have already felt the economic impact of higher gas prices at the pump. Could there be a silver lining for the oil and gas industry in the U.S., though? Possibly, but experts warn that any advantage could be short-lived.

According to a recent Houston Chronicle article by Chris Tomlinson, the Iran war could mean “higher profits” for the U.S. oil and gas industry, particularly Texas companies, “but sustained high prices could trigger a global recession.”

Tomlinson notes that “Texans working in the oil patch know that a war in the Middle East is good for business, even if it’s bad for American consumers.” However, he points out that “[o]il and gas producers can’t be blamed for that. They offer a commodity for sale and global markets determine prices. Foreign wars are a windfall because prices rise while the Permian Basin’s production costs remain unchanged.”

As Americans watch gas prices rise, questions arise about why, if America is so dominant in oil and gas, why does the global market affect us so much. Tomlinson explains that “[c]ounterintuitively, U.S. energy security comes from the global market. Fifteen years ago, before Texans perfected horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, we relied on imported oil. Soon, we will again.”

The fracking boom in West Texas will likely reach its pinnacle in 2027 before plateauing and eventually declining. That means that “extracting oil and gas from lesser-quality shale will soon cost more.” Moreover, “the Jones Act requires U.S.-built tankers to carry Texas oil to the East and West Coasts, and there are not enough of them. Refiners can buy foreign oil for less than it costs to transport Texas oil, and Texas can sell crude to other countries more easily than to U.S. refiners.”

Tomlinson concludes, “[a]s long as the United States relies on fossil fuels, what happens in the Persian Gulf will critically impact the Texas economy.” “Higher energy prices slow economic activity. If oil prices remain high, they can cause a recession and unemployment.”

While oil executives closely monitor the Iran war and its impact on global supply, one thing remains clear: the oil and gas industry isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Even as oil and gas demand fluctuates, there will be no shortage of oil and gas jobs for the foreseeable future.

In fact, many oil and gas companies still struggle to hire the skilled workers they desperately need. Moving forward, companies will need to continue to hire skilled workers while also upskilling current workers.

So how do oil and gas companies improve their focus on technical skills? For new and current employees, the answer is technical training. Oil and gas workers need both fundamental knowledge and hands-on technical skills with real industrial equipment they’ll encounter on the job. Be sure to check out Bayport Technical’s wide variety of hands-on oil and gas training systems to take your oil and gas training to the next level!